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Guotai Junan Securities And Guotai Junan International ‘BBB+/A-2’ Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable

หน้าแรก > ข่าวธุรกิจ > Guotai Junan Securities And Guotai Junan International ‘BBB+/A-2’ Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable
ผู้โพส : Admin / วันที่โพส : 2018-03-14 11:15:07
คำค้นหา : S&P Global Ratings Standard & Poor's Keyword: S&P


Guotai Junan Securities And Guotai Junan International ‘BBB+/A-2’ Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Stable




          HONG KONG (S&P Global Ratings) March 13, 2018--S&P Global Ratings affirmed its 'BBB+' long-term and 'A-2' short-term issuer credit ratings on Guotai Junan Securities Co. Ltd. (GTJA) and Guotai Junan International Holdings Ltd. (GTJAI). Our outlook on the long-term rating is stable. GTJA is a China-based securities company, and GTJAI is its Hong Kong-based subsidiary. 
          The affirmed ratings on GTJA reflect the company's continued very strong capitalization and prudent risk management and a moderately high likelihood of extraordinary support. We believe that the improved credit standing of the Shanghai municipal government will solidify its financial capacity to provide extraordinary support to GTJA if needed. 
          In our view, the robust revenue growth supported by Shanghai's strong economy will help the municipal government maintain its budget surplus and very high debt-service coverage ratio, and stabilize its debt burden. We continue to factor in one notch of uplift in our rating on GTJA due to our assessment of the likelihood of extraordinary support to the company from the Shanghai government.
          We continue to expect GTJA to benefit from a moderately high likelihood of extraordinary support from the Shanghai municipal government in case of need due to its very strong link with, and limited importance to, the Shanghai government. This assessment is based on the following: 
          - We anticipate that GTJA will maintain its very strong link with the Shanghai government over the next two years. The Shanghai government remains the company's largest shareholder with ownership of around 30%, even after some dilution in the stake following an IPO in 2017. We continue to see GTJA as an important platform for the government to develop the capital markets in Shanghai and provide relevant financial services. We believe the government will continue to show strong commitment to the company in times of stress. In our view, a default by GTJA could adversely affect the municipal government's reputation.
          - As a commercial securities company in China, we consider GTJA of limited importance to the Shanghai government, despite its contribution to Shanghai's aspiration of becoming an international financial center. The company's role could be substituted by other securities firms in China, particularly when the securities industry is highly fragmented and competitive.

          In our view, GTJA's very strong capitalization and prudent risk management will continue to underpin its stand-alone credit profile (SACP) of 'bbb', barring a deviation from its moderate growth ambition. We expect the company's capital position to be very strong as denoted by our expected risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio above 15% over the next 12 months. Net proceeds of around Hong Kong dollar 16.8 billion from GTJA's H-share IPO in April 2017 and the issuance of Chinese renminbi 7 billion A-share convertible bonds in July 2017 have strengthened its capital position and funding profile. They have also reduced the company's financial leverage, with the adjusted asset-to-equity ratio falling to 2.6x as of Sept. 30, 2017, from 2.9x as of Dec. 31, 2016. Despite profitability, as measured by the return on average equity, falling to 9.05% in 2017, from 10.64% in 2016, we expect GTJA to deliver a more robust average profit than peers. That's given the company's conservative investment strategy and prudent lending policies. 
          We view GTJAI as a core subsidiary of GTJA and therefore equalize our ratings on GTJAI with that on the parent. We also expect potential extraordinary government support to the parent to be indirectly available to GTJAI. Our assessment of GTJAI's group status reflects the company's key role within, and meaningful business contribution to, the wider parent group.
          The stable outlook on GTJA reflects our expectation that the company will maintain its leading market position, solid capitalization, and prudent risk management with manageable risk appetite over the next two years. In our view, GTJA's very strong link with the Shanghai government is also unlikely to change during the period, underpinning the company's creditworthiness. 
          The stable outlook on GTJAI reflects the outlook on GTJA because we expect GTJAI to remain a core subsidiary of GTJA over the next two years. We expect GTJAI to also remain an indirect beneficiary of any potential extraordinary government support to the parent. The ratings and outlooks on the two entities will move in tandem. 
          We may lower the rating on GTJA if the company's SACP of 'bbb' weakens. This could occur if: (1) we expect GTJA's RAC ratio to fall below 15%; or (2) the company's risk profile shows weakening resilience and asset quality deteriorates to levels below that of major peers. 
          We will downgrade GTJAI if we lower the rating on GTJA. Additionally, we could also downgrade GTJAI if we see signs that the company is diverging from GTJA's strategies and if GTJAI's strategic importance to GTJA diminishes substantially. 
          In a less likely scenario, we may upgrade GTJA if we expect the company's funding and liquidity profile to materially improve to a stronger level than that of major peers on a sustained basis. 
          We will raise the rating on GTJAI if we upgrade GTJA.
 
 
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